Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Chris Narveson: LOOGY?

     Wherever Chris Narveson goes, good things seem to follow for Brewers fans. Think back to his first real gig in the big-league rotation in April 2010. Narveson took Jeff Suppan place in the starting rotation, signaling that the bombings that were Suppan's starts and his albatross contract would (in time) come to an end. Later, when Narveson sliced up his hand performing routine maintenance on his glove, Marco Estrada stepped in to provide seventeen high-quality innings in his place. Then, like a gunshot that kills two enemies at once near the climax of a bad action movie, Narveson's triumphant return from the DL (5 shutout innings) served the dual benefit of getting the ghost of Felipe Lopez off the roster for good.
     It's looking like Narveson will be caught in the middle of his club's good fortune again. In about a month, the lefty is probably going to be booted from the rotation, in a manner met with much more excitement than Suppan's unceremonious dumping. Narveson's arrival in the bullpen should coincide with the move to a four-man rotation that will (jinx alert!) signal the Brewers' arrival in the 2011 Postseason.
     Where exactly Narveson will fit in the bullpen is a bit of an open question, but his handedness could fill a role that could become very important, considering the various opponents the club could face in the Division series. The Brewers have spent the whole season without an effective left-handed option in the 'pen (Mitch Stetter was never really given a shot), and are hardly in need of a second long-reliever, so it would seem Narveson's ideal role (assuming he is on the playoff roster, which he should be) would be retiring same-side hitters in a short-relief capacity, which brings up another question. Just how well is Narveson suited to pitch out of the bullpen? How will he fare against the best left-handed hitters in the game? Has he ever heard of safety scissors? Most of these questions will be answered in due time, but that's not going to impede upon our inalienable right to speculate. This, like most posts starts with a table of stats.

SplitPAH2B3BHRBBSOBAOBPSLGBAbip
vs RHB as LHP483119263113494.271.322.419.320
vs LHB as LHP112214121618.219.330.344.250
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2011.

     Pictured above are Narveson's 2011 platoon splits. Looking at them, you could arrive at a number of different conclusions, so I'll (mostly) just present facts. The .219/.330/.344 line is actually worse, by OPS, than NL left/left matchups (.226/.289/.342) as a whole, but the difference is wholly a result of Narveson's high walk rate against lefties, as he has been slightly better in the batting average and slugging departments. Narveson has walked over 14% of the lefties he has faced this year, more than double his 2010 rate. There's no reason I can think of to expect Narveson will continue to avoid the plate against the hitters he is at his best facing, but even if he does, his OPS against them will be far better (to the tune of 100 and 200 points, respectively) than that of Takashi Saito or Francisco Rodriguez, the setup relievers currently dealing with the brunt of the left-handed hitters. Another minor trend worth watching is Narveson's struggles with men on. In each of the last two years, Narveson has been significantly worse with runners on than with the bases empty, a legitimate concern for a pitcher who is suddenly going to be pitching from the stretch all the time. However, this split was reversed in 2009, when Narveson spent a good part of the year in the bullpen. 
     It's clear by now that though he isn't ideal, Narveson is the best option for retiring left-handed hitters late in the game, but an important factor that has so far gone unexamined is his stuff and delivery. Narveson throws between 3 and 5 pitches, depending on how you count things: A four seam fastball, two-seam fastball and cutter that all sit in the upper-80s, a changeup that averages about 80 mph, and a slow curve in the low to mid 70s. If you don't watch the Brewers regularly, this video of his last start shows him throwing his various fastballs and his changeup several times.



Narveson doesn't have the ideal array of pitches for left-on-left work, as his changeup and curve are both pretty vertical and he doesn't throw his cut fastball very often. (This might explain some of his below average platoon split, walks aside.) However, Narveson's three-quarters delivery (watch the video again if you have to) fits the bill for retiring same-side hitters. (Picture Prince Fielder looking lost against a left-handed slider thrown from a low angle.) Again, it seems, we're looking at a pitcher who is not the best option, but is certainly the best available one. But, remember, if you see Narveson called in to face Ryan Howard or Brian McCann come October, it sure beats the alternative in more ways than one.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Call-Up Candidates: Position Players

No cute introductions, just four potentially soon-to-be big league postion players.

Martin Maldonado (40-man)

YearAgeLevGPARH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTB
201124AA6424124551303211956.264.349.37077
201124AAA321311936505001614.327.426.50956
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Maldonado is almost a lock to be called up, with Ron Roenicke himself hinting to his imminent arrival. Come September 1st, he may not have much of a role beyond giving his manager the tactical peace of mind to pinch-hit George Kottaras, who he may be able to challenge for a job next spring. Maldonado has the kind of catch and throw skills (career 42% CS) that make Mike Scioscia swoon and could influence Ron Roenicke enough to grant a start to his eventual career as a big-league backup, especially since he also possesses enough secondary skills to equal Kottaras's contributions with the bat. Even though Maldonado has been generally old for his leagues, his days of wondering what Wil Nieves has that he doesn't should soon be over.

Mat Gamel (40-man)

YearAgeLevGPARH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTB
201125AAA1154908214227027203974.319.378.562250
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Another guy whose time to shine will almost certainly come next year, Gamel's consistent mashing in the PCL should soon be rewarded with a month of a major-league per diem. Unfortunately, he was in this exact same situation back in 2008, back when he was a top prospect with a late 2009 ETA. Now, he's 26 and in his 4th Triple-A season. Gamel's best chance to contribute will be in a pinch-hitting capacity, and any audition for the 2012 first base job will occur late in the next month when (hopefully) the Brewers will have the division locked up.

Eric Farris (40-man)

YearAgeLevGPARH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTB
201125AAA1225486613224561873165.267.316.372184
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

After a brief stint as Rickie Weeks' replacement, Farris was whisked back down to Nashville with a plan to return upon roster expansion. Among the players profiled here, Farris may offer the most utility to the current roster, standing around at various up-the-middle positions while being otherwise being stashed on the bench for late game Runnin' Ron-approved baseburning. This is probably for the best, since Farris isn't much of a hitter and unless something changes on that front, will likely have a modest career as a utility infielder/designated jackrabbit who could fill out the edges of most teams or play everyday and bat leadoff for Dusty Baker.

Logan Schafer (not on 40-man)

YearAgeLevGPARH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGTB
201124A+9414110001154.306.390.30611
201124AA5021131579401051725.302.368.39274
201124AAA3215726461115321413.336.400.54074
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Schafer is the best of the various non-roster outfielders sitting around in Nashville, as he has mashed in the PCL while rebounding nicely from the injuries that plagued him in years past. How far this will get him is unclear, as the Brewers don't need an outfielder and are wary of disrupting their SI-Cover-Cursed clubhouse chemistry. Schafer's future itself is a bit cloudy too. There's seemingly no room for an outfielder in 2012, either, and Schafer, who could be an excellent fourth outfielder and maybe something more, is going to be running out of things to prove in the minors fast. It's going to take a trade or injury stack for Schafer to get major-league playing time, and neither of those options are particularly appealing for fans of the big-league team.

Call-Up Candidates: Pitchers

     In a little over a week, the calendar will turn to September, and teams will be allowed to carry 40 players on their active roster. Most of the time in Milwaukee, this is a chance to look at youngsters who might be able to help out at a later date when the Brewers will hopefully contend for a playoff spot. Things are different now, however, as this is the year the team and its' fans have been waiting for. As a result, the club (if you believe Bill Schroeder) will not call up a large number of unproven minor leaguers, but seek to add pieces that will help the team win games in the seasons final month. (Players will have to be called up by August 31 in order to be eligible for the playoff roster.) The Brewers don't have an Aroldis Chapman or David Price sitting in Nashville, waiting patiently to be dropped like an H-Bomb on an unsuspecting National League, but there are several possible call-ups who could help the club this month and in the future. We'll profile the pitchers today and the position players tomorrow.
Wily Peralta: (40-man)

YearAgeLevERAGGSIPHRHRBBSOWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
201122AA3.462121119.2106579481171.2878.00.73.68.82.44
201122AAA1.803320.011403240.7005.00.01.410.88.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Peralta is a big (6'2, 240) Dominican right-hander with excellent stuff, including a low to mid 90s fastball and solid slider. Having laid waste to the PCL after a good half-season in Huntsville, Peralta is a strong candidate to fill a bullpen role this September with an eye on a 2012 gig in the big-league rotation. It's hard to see such a role opening up next year, but that can be filed away under "a nice problem to have", as Peralta would almost surely be in the big-league rotation by now if it were any of the previous three years. Forecasting aside, there's no reason Peralta won't be in a Brewer uniform soon, and can be a capable bullpen cog in short order.

Mike McClendon: (40-man)

YearAgeLgERAGGSIPHRHRBBSOWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
201126AAA2.5833052.15019115401.2428.60.22.66.92.67
201126NL2.639013.215513101.3179.90.72.06.63.33
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Over the past two years, organizational soldier McClendon has done pretty much everything his managers could ask for, striking out batters, getting grounders, and not hurting himself with walks both in Nashville and Milwaukee, while not getting any chance to rise above his current role of up-and-down middle reliever. Granted, his stuff is not really conducive to effective major league pitching, leaving many to wonder when the other shoe will drop on his mildly surprising effectiveness. (There just aren't many successful big-league hurlers equipped with a "fastball" as harmless as McClendon's mid-to-upper 80s sinker.) On the other hand, McClendon is yet to fail at any level, and it would be borderline criminal for him to not at least get another look soon, but this may be too much to expect from a manager that has struggled all season to get work for the bottom of his bullpen.

Randy Flores: (not on 40-man)

YearAgeLgERAGGSIPHRHRBBSOWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
201135AAA3.1656057.05526615471.2288.70.92.47.43.13
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

Flores is a bit of a long shot, as calling him up would require dropping someone else from the 40-man roster for a questionable talent in the first place. Conventional wisdom says that the Brewers' main pitching need (beside a league-average defense) is a LOOGY, and membership in that exclusive club is where most of Flores' value lies. Heck, he's spent part of the last seven seasons in "The Show" and even pitched for Tony Freaking LaRussa! Flores is just 12 months removed from being a quality setup option, but almost nothing has gone right for him this year. Right now, it's hard to tell what exactly he is, and there isn't a ton of reason to believe Flores will be any better at retiring southpaws than any of the various right-handed setup options, so don't hold your breath here.


Danny Ray Herrera: (40-man)

YearAgeLgERAGGSIPHRHRBBSOWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
201126AAA2.3443057.24919315511.1107.60.52.38.03.40
201126NL21.60201.2651104.20032.45.45.40.00.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2011.

If you're the type that is longing to see someone left-handed in the Brewers' bullpen, LOOGY or LNOGY, Herrera just might be your guy. In addition to being conveniently on the 40-man, Herrera adds extra spice as a 5'6 Texan with a mid-80s fastball and screwball. This, however, raises the question of why exactly the Brewers need a LOOGY so badly. Any argument in favor likely involves being caught empty-handed come postseason time when a lefty slugger comes up late in the game, during which Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, and even Chris Narveson will be readily available. So while having Herrera around won't hurt anybody, he's by no means a necessity.

Check back tomorrow for the position players.