A quick explanation on how I arrived at my list of targets. First, I looked at the standings to identify teams far enough out of the playoff hunt to consider trading away established players. Second, I looked for shortstops who could provide an upgrade over the current trio of terror. I didn't give any consideration to who's "available" or "being shopped", which is why so many of these scenarios are crazy long shots. So, without further ado, here are my first three shortstop trade targets.
Jose Reyes:
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Let's just get this out of the way: Acquiring Reyes would be unbelievably huge to the Brewers and their playoff chances, but is beyond unlikely. Given the sheer improbability of Milwaukee being able to pull off such a deal, I won't get as in depth as I do with more likely trade candidates, but Reyes has accumulated 3.1 WAR this season and Yuni Betancourt has "earned" -0.2. You do the math. Alas, the Brewers just don't have the minor league pieces required to pull off a trade for Reyes. If you want to cling to the ever-so-slight hope it could happen, in Doug Melvin's two biggest trade hauls (Sabathia and Greinke) were acquired through creative deals where the team was able to leverage the Indians and Royals needs to beat out teams with significantly more organizational firepower. Cross your fingers, knock on wood, pray to the baseball gods, but don't expect any miracles.
JJ Hardy:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 27 | NYM | 133 | 603 | 83 | 159 | 29 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 10 | 31 | 63 | .282 | .321 | .428 | 103 | 241 |
| 2011 | 28 | NYM | 73 | 348 | 56 | 107 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 26 | .334 | .380 | .506 | 148 | 162 |
| 9 Seasons | 997 | 4602 | 690 | 1226 | 211 | 96 | 77 | 357 | 90 | 315 | 494 | .289 | .338 | .439 | 105 | 1860 | ||
Hardy is a very interesting case, as he has suddenly turned into an offensive force after more or less resembling a typical shortstop for the Twins in 2010. A closer look reveals some odd but telling trends, especially his sudden propensity for fly balls, which combined with his move from spacious Target Field (HR Park Factor: .84) to hitter-friendly Cadmen Yards (1.074), is likely the major cause of his newfound offense. During his struggles in 2009 and 2010, Hardy was often referred to as having "warning track power", and his already nearing and exceeding his HR output for those respective seasons is likely more a result of him hitting the same fly balls over shorter fences than any real increase in power. Brewers or not, any team acquiring him who doesn't play in a strong hitter's park is likely to find out the hard way.
Jeff Keppinger
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 27 | NYM | 133 | 603 | 83 | 159 | 29 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 10 | 31 | 63 | .282 | .321 | .428 | 103 | 241 |
| 2011 | 28 | NYM | 73 | 348 | 56 | 107 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 26 | .334 | .380 | .506 | 148 | 162 |
| 9 Seasons | 997 | 4602 | 690 | 1226 | 211 | 96 | 77 | 357 | 90 | 315 | 494 | .289 | .338 | .439 | 105 | 1860 | ||
Keppinger has generated some buzz among fans as a possible trade chip, as he is a capable hitter without a role on a team going nowhere. Keppinger could undoubtably provide some help at the plate, but the main issue is whether or not he really is a shortstop. He hasn't played the position at all this season, after poor showings in every available defensive metric in his 4 years prior. However, despite his defensive shortcomings, Keppinger seems very well suited to the Brewers. Aside from being a quality hitter who could plug a major hole in a lineup currently occupying three potential replacement-level killers, the Brewer pitching staff is constructed so that the team should prioritize offense over defense in the infield.
One of the main drawbacks of using FIP or xFIP to evaluate pitchers is that the component statistics (Ks, BBs, and GB% or HRs) used to make the two stats interact in ways that FIP and xFIP don't account for. For example, a high home run rate will hurt a pitcher with a high walk rate than one with a low walk rate because more baserunners equal more dingers with guys on. (Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman did the main work on this subject, which can be found here, here, here, here, here, and here.) A similar thing is going on in Milwaukee, as Brewer pitchers' rates are so that they won't be affected as much as usual by infield defense.
| IP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yovani Gallardo | 96.1 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 0.89 |
| Zack Greinke | 60.1 | 31.9% | 3.6% | 0.75 |
| Shaun Marcum | 94.2 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 0.58 |
| Chris Narveson* | 85.0 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 0.82 |
| Randy Wolf* | 91.1 | 17.5% | 6.9% | 0.57 |
| League Average | 18.9% | 8.3% | 0.84 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/24/2011.
As you can see, Brewer's starters generally give up fewer grounders than average (with the exception of Gallardo), strike out more than normal (save for Wolf), and walk fewer than average as well (Gallardo and Narveson notwithstanding). This leads to fewer balls in play (more Ks), fewer balls hit to infielders (lower GB/FB), and fewer double play chances (fewer walks and grounders), all of which should make the team affected less by bad defense. Keppinger's bat-first offensive profile would be an excellent fit for the Brewers, though he may best be utilized in a platoon sort of role, with Betancourt getting most of Gallardo's starts and late-inning defensive work, as you wouldn't want Keppinger in the same zip code when Kameron Loe is pitching.
Batted-ball data is from Fangraphs, all other stats are from Baseball Reference, and the batted-ball graph was made using ChartGo.
Generated 6/24/2011.
As you can see, Brewer's starters generally give up fewer grounders than average (with the exception of Gallardo), strike out more than normal (save for Wolf), and walk fewer than average as well (Gallardo and Narveson notwithstanding). This leads to fewer balls in play (more Ks), fewer balls hit to infielders (lower GB/FB), and fewer double play chances (fewer walks and grounders), all of which should make the team affected less by bad defense. Keppinger's bat-first offensive profile would be an excellent fit for the Brewers, though he may best be utilized in a platoon sort of role, with Betancourt getting most of Gallardo's starts and late-inning defensive work, as you wouldn't want Keppinger in the same zip code when Kameron Loe is pitching.
Batted-ball data is from Fangraphs, all other stats are from Baseball Reference, and the batted-ball graph was made using ChartGo.
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